The beloved Pontiff’s passing sets in motion a process so ancient, arcane—and fascinating to all.
Called the papal conclave or simply conclave, the process of selecting a new pope has spawned a number of films and books, the most recent of which is the eponymous 2024 film starring Ralph Fiennes, which was adapted from the novel of the same name published in 2016.
The conclave is arguably the world’s most distinct electoral system. It’s not as straightforward as picking from a list of nominees, tallying the results, and declaring the victor. It warrants a separate article altogether (National Geographic has here a nifty guide). For this piece, we shall be looking into the men of the hour—the papabile or the “popeables” in English. The impending conclave in the wake of Pope Francis’ passing will have about 135 cardinals who are eligible to vote, 110 of whom were chosen by him in the past 10 years and reflect his vision of a more inclusive church.
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A quick search online reveals several lists of papal frontrunners. The POST trawled 10 respected media outlets and compared their lists against one another. The 10 publications are The New York Times, Reuters, The Associated Press, Forbes, Time, Al Jazeera, The Washington Post, The Guardian, CNN, and Newsweek. A total of 24 names from around the world emerged. But of these two dozen papabile, only a handful appeared on multiple lists, with three appearing in all 10.
The POST gathers here the names that have appeared on at least five publications. A word of caution, though: being a frontrunner doesn’t necessarily mean you have a good chance of being elected to be the rightful bearer of St. Peter’s key. In fact, Pope Francis and Pope John Paul II weren’t even considered among the favorites coming into the conclave. This brings to mind a popular saying about the papal elections: “He who enters the conclave as pope leaves it as a cardinal.”
With this, get to know the seven cardinals considered the frontrunners to the papacy by at least half of the 10 titles reviewed by The POST.
1. Cardinal Peter Erdo (10/10 publications)
The 72-year-old from Hungary is known as an expert on canon law. Per The New York Times, Erdo longs for a “return to the conservatism of Popes John Paul II and Benedict XVI.” This is supported by his profile on CNN, which says that he has the support of conservative candidates who would like to see the Catholic church taken in a different direction from the trail Pope Francis blazed.
2. Cardinal Pietro Parolin (10/10 publications)
The 70-year-old Italian was Pope Francis’ second-in-command since 2013, when Francis made him secretary of state. Described by the NYT as a “soft-spoken and mild-mannered centrist,” his papacy, should he be elected, is seen largely as a continuation of Pope Francis. There have been 266 popes in the nearly 2,000-year-old history of the Catholic Church, of which an overwhelming 217 were from Italy. Should Parolin (or the other Italian cardinal on this list) be elected, he will be the first Italian pope since John Paul I in 1978.
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3. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (10/10 publications)
A hugely popular candidate, the 67-year-old Filipino is also widely considered the “Asian Francis,” not only for his close relationship with the late pontiff, but also for their shared advocacies. He has for years been a frontrunner to the papacy, even as early as the 2013 conclave which saw the election of Pope Francis. Should Tagle be thrust into the role, he will be the first pope from Asia, which is considered by many as the future (if not already the present) of the Catholic church together with Africa. A quick scroll through X (formerly Twitter) shows Tagle is quite popular among the youth, just like the next name on this list.
4. Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (9/10 publications)
The 69-year-old archbishop of Bologna was appointed by Pope Francis to lead peace missions in Russia and Ukraine, per his profile on The Washington Post. Born in Rome, CNN reports that he is known for his diplomatic skills and deftness in conflict-resolution as much as he is for his humility. Zuppi is also known for his outreach to LGBTQ+ Catholics, leading some to consider him even more progressive than Tagle. And just like the Filipino cardinal, Zuppi is quite Twitter famous, especially among younger users.
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5. Cardinal Mario Grech (6/10 publications)
Born in Malta, the 68-year-old is the secretary general of the Synod of Bishops, a top advisory body to the pope. Per his profile on Forbes, Grech “shared largely conservative views before Francis was elected pope in 2013.” However, a year later, he called on the church to be more accepting of LGBTQ+ members and later even expressed support for women as deacons.
6. Cardinal Peter Turkson (5/10 publications)
The 76-year-old cardinal from Ghana is a well-known figure in the Church’s social justice circles, according to his profile on Newsweek. Turkson has been vocal on issues such as climate change, poverty, and economic justice, much like the late pontiff. Should he be chosen to take upon the highest post in Catholicism (or the other African cardinal on this list), he will make history as the first Black pope, something African Catholics have been praying for.
7. Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo (5/10 publications)
Another cardinal from Africa, this time from the Democratic Republic of Congo. Like Tagle, he is known for his close association with Pope Francis, being one of just nine members of an advisory group known as the Council of Cardinals, per the NYT. Despite this, however, the 65-year-old is among the cardinals who oppose blessing same-sex couples, despite the late pope’s endorsement.
For now, nothing is certain and all we can do is wait with bated breath until white smoke emerges from the Sistine Chapel and the senior cardinal deacon appears on the balcony overlooking St. Peter’s Square and announces “Habemus Papam!” — “We have a pope!”
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