The world has said its farewells to Pope Francis. Now comes the biggest question: Who will succeed the beloved pontiff?
We might know who in less than two weeks (barring a prolonged balloting), as the Vatican announced on Monday, April 28, that the conclave to elect the next pope will start on May 7. A conclave usually begins 15 to 20 days after the pope’s death; this one will start 16 days after Pope Francis died.
The conclave could have opened a little earlier on May 5, but the Associated Press reports that the delaying of the secret voting for two days is for the cardinals to know one another better and find consensus on a candidate before they are isolated in the Sistine Chapel.
British Cardinal Vincent Nichols, the 79-year-old archbishop of Westminster, in an interview with the Associated Press, admitted that the cardinal-electors don’t know each other very well. “We’ve got all week,” Nichols said.
And we’ve all got about a week or so, too, to get to know the potential successors, which The POST reported on here. With the conclave so secretive that the process sees the cardinal-electors cooped up in the Sistine Chapel with no communication with the outside world (think Big Brother: Vatican edition), spare a few attendants allowed contact with the voting cardinals, there’s only so much we know about it.
The POST rounds up what little we know about this arcane electoral process.
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How many cardinals are eligible to vote?
The New York Times says there are “about 130” cardinal-electors, while The Associated Press gives a more definite number: 135 cardinal-electors, 108 of whom were appointed by Pope Francis, 20 were appointed only in early December. One thing is for sure, only those below 80 years old can participate in the voting.
Even before the conclave has started, a controversy has already arisen. There’s a “big uncertainty” whether or not Cardinal Angelo Becciu, once one of the most powerful cardinals in the Vatican, will be allowed to cast his vote. Pope Francis in 2020 forced Becciu to resign as head of the Vatican’s saint-making office and renounce his rights as a cardinal because of allegations of embezzlement and financial fraud. Becciu was convicted of finance-related charges in December 2023.
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How many votes will determine the winner?
An initial vote takes place on the first day. If no one is elected (which usually is the case in the first vote), “a maximum of four votes for each subsequent day of the conclave is held, with each unsuccessful group of ballots burned afterward,” per the National Geographic.
If three days of voting passes and there’s still no elected pope, members of the conclave take a full day for prayer and contemplation. If that four-day cycle repeats seven more times, a run-off between the two candidates who received the most votes is eventually held.
A two-thirds majority is needed to elect a new pope, and cardinals are not allowed to leave the conclave until a successor is named, except in rare cases.
Per Al Jazeera, Europe will again provide the largest voting bloc with 53 electors, followed by Asia and Oceania with 27, South and Central America with 21, Africa with 18, and North America with 16.
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How will we know if a new pope has been elected?
During the conclave, the faithful outside (and viewers from around the world, I think we can expect live-streaming) could watch a chimney atop the Sistine Chapel for clues if a new pope has been elected. If a consensus has not been reached after a vote, black smoke is emitted. When a pope has been chosen, the smoke is white.
For all you science geeks out there, NatGeo explains that until 2005, the Vatican added natural materials like wet straw (for white) and tarry pitch (for black) to the ballots. It wasn’t until 2013 that the Vatican revealed the chemicals they adopted in 2005 for the purpose: a mix of potassium chlorate, lactose and conifer resin for white, and potassium perchlorate, anthracene and sulfur for black. In 2013, Pope Francis was elected in two days, after five ballots.
Once the pope is chosen, a top cardinal announces the (chosen papal) name from the balcony of Saint Peter’s Basilica, bellowing the words, “Habemus papam! We have a pope!”
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