This website can help you prepare for disaster through its science-based ‘probabilistic maps’

UP NOAH is an invaluable tool to check the susceptibility of areas to flooding.

The Philippines is one of the most disaster prone countries in the world. In the 2023 Global Disaster Risk Index (WRI), in fact, we topped the list of nations with the highest natural disaster risk in the world. The index is calculated by considering how exposed countries are to natural disasters together with how vulnerable they are to them. And we, dear readers, are both highly exposed and highly vulnerable.

We need not look as far back as 2009 when Typhoon Ondoy brought unprecedented havoc to know the WRI index is spitting facts. These past few days, we have been pummeled yet again by relentless rain, at times torrential, causing widespread flooding even in the capital Metro Manila. Despite natural disasters being a regular occurrence in this archipelago we call home, Typhoon Gaemi (local name Carina) seemed to still have caught us off guard.  

Probabilistic maps use multiple simulations to predict bigger hazards in an area, and are able to warn people about places where infrastructure should not be built.

While there’s little we can do against nature’s wrath with all its fearsome power and unpredictability, we can be more prepared.

And one thing we can do to be more proactive when disaster looms is to visit the website of the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards of the University of the Philippines, better known as UP NOAH, formerly Project NOAH. It seeks to assist the country in disaster risk reduction and management, climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts and related activities through research, development, and extension services.

In 2017, the Duterte administration scrapped the flagship disaster management initiative, citing “lack of funds.” Good thing it was adopted by the University of the Philippines (UP) before the funding was cut, giving it a new and digital home. The multidisciplinary research center is now based at the UP National Institute of Geological Sciences and is directly under the UP Office of the President.

Since its inception in 2012 as Project NOAH or UP NOAH has proven time and again that it is is an invaluable tool to check the susceptibility of areas to flooding. Visiting its website can help you prepare accordingly, even well before disaster strikes.

All you need to do is enter your current location and the site will generate a map, which on the right side has clickable categories, specifically the flood, landslide, and storm surge hazard levels of the area. Clicking on each category generates tips on how to prepare and what to do in the unfortunate circumstance of a calamity. Other information such as nearby critical facilities such as schools, hospitals, evacuation and health centers are also provided.

The maps used on the UP NOAH website are called “probabilistic maps,” which are based on scientific data. “We know the physics of the flow of water, there is a lot of understanding about it throughout the decades published by scientists and we use [that] knowledge to simulate with computers and validate the landslide maps that we produce. The accuracy is high, around 90 percent,” Lagmay said, as quoted in an article on Rappler.

Probabilistic maps use multiple simulations to predict bigger hazards in an area, and are able to warn people about places where infrastructure should not be built—even before a disaster strikes. These maps go beyond “historical anecdotes” or what people remember as having occurred in the past.

Lagmay cited the United Nations Disaster Risk Reduction guidelines that say probabilistic maps are needed because probabilistic risk modeling is able to estimate risk in terms of people affected, loss, and damages. These maps also provide possible outcomes for those estimates. 

He also cited the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028 which stipulates the use of probabilistic climate risk assessment by referring to the National Climate Management Risk Framework (NCRMF). Under the said framework, the Climate Change Commission is supposed to adopt and promote activities connected to climate change, one of which is the use of probabilistic climate risk assessment.

The science behind disaster risk management may sound complicated, and it is, but we can also do our bit in helping improve our country’s disaster preparedness.

You can help expand UP NOAH’s database, for instance. Lagmay on Wednesday, July 24, called on netizens to share flood photos, posting on Facebook: “Assignment po sa mga nasa bahay at naiinip. Baka puwede niyo po gawin ito tapos ipost sa Facebook.”

“We will archive your posts for validation of flood models for future use in disaster risk reduction efforts of the country. Please tag UP NOAH,” added the geologist and disaster risk expert.

This is how you can submit photos, according to an article on Good News Pilipinas:

1. Visit the UP NOAH website on desktop or mobile.
2. Locate the flood photo’s location on the NOAH site.
3. Screenshot the flood hazard map.
4. Place the flood photo beside the hazard map screenshot.
5. Post on social media.
6. Tag UP NOAH on Facebook or @nababaha on X.

With UP NOAH, the simple acts of taking and uploading photos of flood-stricken areas can help save lives—not so different from bayanihan. And in the face of more cataclysmic and unpredictable storms due to climate change, even the simplest act of bayanihan can go a long way.