The POST talks to an expert about the much feared earthquake that could possibly hit Metro Manila and nearby provinces.
Exactly a month ago, on March 28, a powerful and destructive 7.7 to 7.9-magnitude earthquake shook Myanmar, adding another heartbreak to our Southeast Asian neighbor which is still under the throes of a prolonged civil war.
The earthquake was so massive that it brought the proud city of Mandalay to its knees, leaving its age-old temples and pagodas in ruins, and leveling many other places in the war-torn country. It left over 3,700 dead, several thousand injured, over a hundred others missing, and tens of thousands displaced amid worsening conditions, per the latest report from the United Nations.
Related story: Global issues to watch in 2025
The quake also struck neighboring Thailand, where it damaged structures, including hundreds of government buildings, and completely leveled one skyscraper that was still under construction. It was even felt as far away as Malaysia’s Penang and Kedah and in several places in Bangladesh.
The scale of destruction proves the fearsome power of earthquakes which, unlike other natural phenomena such as typhoons and hurricanes, are more fearful because of their unpredictability.
The most recent earthquake in Myanmar caused many to wonder if the Philippines is ready for the so-called “The Big One.” The POST interviewed an expert, assistant professor Joshua C. Agar of the Civil Engineering Department of the University of the Philippines Diliman, to find out more about this much feared earthquake, and the steps we can take to better prepare for it.
Related story: 2024’s biggest newsmakers
“Not so ready”
The Philippines consistently ranks as one of the countries with the highest natural disaster risk. In fact, the archipelago topped the rankings of World Population Review this year. We are no strangers to earthquakes, typhoons (we have at least 20 in a year), and even droughts. While we can, to some degree, prepare against impending typhoons, the same is not true for earthquakes, which makes it even more worrisome—especially the one touted as “The Big One.”
“The Big One,” according to a study published in the International Journal of Risk Reduction, is predicted to have a magnitude of 7.2 and to be high intensity. It could possibly hit Metro Manila from the West Valley Fault, which is 100 km in length, and would pass through seven cities in Metro Manila including nearby provinces.
Asst. Prof. Agar told The POST that the chances of the Philippines experiencing an earthquake as powerful as (or even more than) the one that struck Myanmar is higher as “the Philippines has more seismic zones (potential sources of earthquakes).”
As examples, he enumerated the most recent powerful earthquakes that struck the country: a 7.6 magnitude earthquake in 2023 in Northern Mindanao, which occurred a month after a 6.7 magnitude earthquake in Southern Mindanao; a 7.0 magnitude earthquake in Abra in 2022; Central Luzon had one in April 2019 that registered a magnitude of 6.1; and the catastrophic 7.2 magnitude Bohol earthquake in 2013. “Earthquakes of similar magnitudes to the Myanmar earthquake occur more often, although the magnitude of the earthquakes is expressed in terms of a logarithmic (Richter) scale,” he explained.
Asked if we are ready for “The Big One,” Agar kept the answer short: “Not so ready, I believe.” He cited a 2004 study that already projected a catastrophe if a huge earthquake were to occur on the West Valley fault. “Some of our undergraduate theses, particularly that of Engr. Michael John Mendoza and Engr. Zarah Nikka Dionisio has documented an abundance of non-engineered buildings (which are more vulnerable against earthquakes) populating the fault line itself,” he said.
Related story: Another fashion controversy: Major brands linked to alleged child labor in cotton farms
Agar said, however, that the readiness of the engineered buildings, especially the ones following the code provisions of the National Structural Code of the Philippines, are constantly improving.
He mentioned that the Association of Structural Engineers of the Philippines and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) have been collaborating recently to provide more comprehensive provisions of designing buildings against earthquakes. “The Philippines also features one of the most sophisticated disaster risk and reduction management frameworks in the world,” he added.
Related story: This website can help you prepare for disaster through its science-based ‘probabilistic maps’
Strengthening readiness, vigilance
The preparation for earthquakes comes in two ways: policy-making and seismic design, Asst. Prof. Agar, who is also a National Project Coordinator at the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, explained. “The policy-making wing of the preparation involves improvements on the disaster risk and reduction management framework,” he added. “This includes forecasting of high-risk areas against earthquakes, readiness campaigns, and rehearsals on disaster response.”
The focus should shift away from relief, where the traditional politicians set up patronage traps, and instead focus on preparedness where the true competence of those in power is tested.
Asst Prof. Agar said that PHIVOLCS has several practical materials that include infographics on how to conduct ourselves during an earthquake. You can download the materials here.
On the other hand, seismic design, he said, “involves continuous improvements on the building design principles, including the constant calibration of the magnitude of the shaking to be considered in the design, as well as the incorporation of the newly developed techniques in providing buildings with better resistance against earthquakes.” This includes retrofitting of existing structures that are deemed vulnerable to future earthquakes.
From a structural engineer’s perspective, Agar believes that the location where the odds of survival are the greatest includes the areas right beside the main columns of the building. “It is far more okay to be in buildings that are deliberately designed to be flexible than the ones that are not shaking much, as the ones that are flexible are better at dissipating the energy brought by the energy, unlike the more rigid ones where that energy can be notoriously concentrated at the foundations, which might lead to collapse,” he clarified.
He warned against buildings near rivers or coastlines which “can also not be safe” after an earthquake because there may be liquefaction and settlement that might occur. Put simply, liquefaction and settlement are related earthquake hazards where ground shaking causes soil to lose strength and settle, potentially damaging structures.
“Part of strengthening vigilance is to shift away [the] cultural notion of resilience in the Philippines, with Filipinos being noted to be resilient in a way that they tolerate the misfortunes brought by the hazard,” Agar said. “The focus should shift away from relief, where the traditional politicians set up patronage traps, and instead focus on preparedness where the true competence of those in power is tested.”
Related story: Turning the tide: Why it’s long overdue for rape-related shame to switch sides
